ECON 511
    Business and Economic Forecasting


    Instructor:    Dr. Jin W. Choi
                          6216 DePaul Center
                          Phone:(312)362-8842
                          Fax:(312)362-8482
                          e-mail: jchoi@depaul.edu

    Office Hours:  Any time by appointment.

    Textbook:     Wilson, J. Holton and Keating, Barry. Business Forecasting. Third Edition, Irwin/McGraw-Hill, Inc. 1998.

    Objective:     To survey and learn the principles and techniques underlying various business and economic forecast
                          information that are often available in the real world. Emphasis will be on the techniques, their relative
                          strengths and weaknesses, and real world applications.

    Lecture Schedule:
     

    Week
    Topics to be Covered
    Chapters
    1
    Introduction
    1
    2
    Review of Basic Statistics
    2
    3
    Smoothing Methods
    3
    4
    Simple Regression
    4
    5
    Midterm Exam
    		 
    6
    Multiple Regression
    5
    7
    Decomposition Method
    6
    8
    ARIMA Models
    7
    9
    Practical Issues with Forecasting
    9
    10
    Paper Presentation
    		  
    11
    Final Exam
    		 

     
     
     

    Grading Format:

    1. Exams: There will be two exams of the midterm and the final with an equal weight of 35% each. Due to an unforeseen circumstance, if you can not take an exam on the scheduled date, you are encouraged to take it before the scheduled date. No make-up exam will be allowed after the scheduled date unless prior permission is granted.

    2. Homework: Weekly homework, which must be handed in by the beginning of the next class, will carry a weight of 15% for the final grade. If a homework is not handed in by the designated time, it will receive a zero credit.

    3. Term Paper: A short research paper (8 to 12 pages long for non-MAs and 15 to 20 pages long for MAs, double-spaced and typed) will carry a weight of 15%. This paper is due the final exam date. Any paper that is not submitted by the due date will not be graded.
     

    ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE TERM PAPER:

    The purpose of the term paper is to allow the student to display his or her understanding of forecasting models and to be able to apply these methods to a real world situation.

    Each student will prepare a forecast of an economic or business variable (such as GDP, inflation, interest rate, unemployment, some firm's sales, production, etc.), using a minimum of 3 different forecasting technique(s) he or she wishes to employ. A regression method must be included. The student will be responsible for the collection and analysis of the data, as well as writing up the results.

    The paper should be typewritten, double-spaced, and somewhere between eight and twenty pages long, excluding any tables. The paper is due the night of the final exam - NO EXCEPTIONS.

    The following information must be included in the final report of your class project.

    1. Describe briefly the nature and the source of your data (i.e., weekly, monthly, or quarterly data?) and explain why you chose the data.

    2. Provide a chart of your time series data against time, if you are working with a single data series.

    3. Provide the reason(s) for selecting the models you are using for forecasting. A minimum of three models is required and any three or more of the following models are strongly recommended: (1) a smoothing model, 2) a decomposition model; and (3) a regression model; (4) an ARIMA model.

    4. Show every step of your forecasting methodology whenever possible.

    5. Specify your final forecasting model (=equation) and provide a minimum of 4 forecasts beyond your study period.

    6. Describe your conclusion on the performance of your forecasting model. Also, provide some recommendations to improve your forecasting model.
     

    Grading Scale:

    Please visit the grading policy and scale site.